短剧行业深度报告：新渠道、新内容，供需两端再认知短剧
近日真人互动游戏《完蛋！我被美女包围了》出圈，带动传媒板块估值提升。市场部分观点认为，互动剧项目制特征明显，不具备持续性。我们认为，尽管单产品的出圈具有偶然性，但是短剧出圈的背后是供需两端的推动。当前时刻，我们建议持续关注新渠道及新内容形态的产生。剧情互动游戏是剧集新场景的探索。虽然互动剧的出圈具有一定的偶然性，但我们认为剧情互动游戏是新内容形态+新渠道的结合，具有较高的想象空间。一方面剧集内容由tob的产品形态发展至toc，优质产品收入空间得以打开；另一方面剧集的上线渠道由视频平台变为应用商店渠道，新渠道意味着新营销方式及新用户群体，从而带来新增量。后续新产品上线，有望持续验证该种模式。除互动剧外，微短剧也是近年来较火的新业态。剧集行业作为成熟的赛道，近年来也在发生积极的变化。我们从供给、需求两方面总结产业发展规律。供给侧，从剧集内容本身来看，一方面传统剧集集数减少，另一方面微短剧单集时长缩短至几分钟。微短剧制作流程短，制作门槛低，验证周期短，从而产品供给实现快速增长。需求侧，单集时长较短的微短剧，更为契合消费者碎片化消费习惯。微短剧兴起于短视频平台，是平台内容生态的一部分，2019年快手推出专门制作短剧的“快手小剧场”，2021年抖音推出首部自制短剧《做梦吧！晶晶》，并陆续推出“新番计划”等扶持计划。2022年12月，广电总局印发《关于推动短剧创作繁荣发展的意见》，表述了支持短剧行业发展的意见。小程序短剧是新渠道带来的结构性增长机会。小程序短剧是单集时长1-2分钟之间的微短剧，上架至小程序供用户观看。在供需两端的推动下，小程序平台作为新的渠道，拓展了新的用户群体，实现快速增长。具体来看，小程序短剧主要受益于22年抖音同微信流量打通，参与方在抖音平台买量至微信小程序平台，用户付费观看全集内容，随着优质剧集的持续涌现，短剧用户量有望持续增长。政策频出，健康发展主线不改。随着微短剧快速发展，监管政策也在不断出台，对行业进行规范，2022年末开展3个月的“小程序”微短剧专项整治，2023年11月15日提出引导与管理的七条举措。但上述整治是为了鼓励行业健康发展。2023年11月21日广电智库发文，微短剧的发展和治理需要同步推进，鼓励行业健康可持续发展，鼓励内容品质整体升级，鼓励国际传播发挥优势。来源：民生证券报告内容节选如下：https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2023%2F1217%2F09d66495j00s5tc8a002lc000hs00p5g.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg
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